A source of advanced information and market analysis focused on the development of pricing and risk management strategies for anyone in the business of buying or selling meat, or trading meat-related futures markets
Whether you're operating restaurants or supermarkets; a food distribution service; a processing or manufacturing facility; or an import/export trading company, you’re in a highly competitive business. Meat markets are volatile, and margins are often thin. A few pennies per pound can make enormous differences in your bottom line. In order to make the best possible decisions, it is essential to have the best possible information at your disposal.

Here are the excerpts from this week's "Meat Markets Under a Microscope" report, by Kevin Bost.

May 22, 2018

Demand for beef at the wholesale level is holding near its strongest levels of the year, after having rebounded from a "soft spot" in April. Of course, it's typical for demand to improve from April to May, but this time around the increase is going beyond the seasonal norm. The proof lies in the fact that domestic beef supplies have increased 1.1% less than the 20-year average, while the combined Choice/Select cutout value has risen 4.4% more than the 20-year average. It is reflected in the weekly demand index, which is adjusted for seasonality and which increased substantially in the first week of May and has held its ground since then. In the picture below, the final red bar represents the week just ended:
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Here are the excerpts from this week's "Trading Cattle...from a meat market perspective" report, by Kevin Bost.

June 11, 2018

I remain long of the August contract, and I added to that position this morning in anticipation of a close above $106.50 per cwt. It follows that if the market does not close above $106.50, I will dump this increment (or excrement) and do it again upon such a close. A close above $106.50 would be a powerful signal that the market "wants" to move higher, and that my forecast of a $117 cash market in August may not be far off the mark. It would complete a loosely-defined double bottom formation that would measure to roughly $115. It would be equally as convincing as the top formation that was completed on March 15, from which a 1250-point decline swiftly ensued. The validity of a double bottom formation is somehow bolstered by the fact that an unusually large percentage of total open interest is held by short speculators - implying, of course, that there is a lot of potential short-covering to be done. And finally among the technical considerations is that the five-day moving average has moved above the ten-day MA, and the ten-day MA has moved above the 40-day MA; by this definition, the trend is upward.
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Here are the excerpts from this week's "Trading Hogs...from a meat market perspective" report, by Kevin Bost.

June 10, 2018

I remain short of August hogs against a long position in the October contract, although my fundamental conviction is not as strong as it once was. There is a technical appeal to this spread, which is that if the August premium closes below $12.65, then it would complete a double-top formation that would measure to about $11.00...and it settled right on that mark on Friday. And so it deserves a brief opportunity to make this happen. By "brief" I mean that if it does not happen within the next couple of days, I probably will close out the position.
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