Here are the excerpts from this week's "Meat Markets Under a Microscope" report, by Kevin Bost.
August 15, 2021
Rarely do I find it justifiable to make significant adjustments to hog slaughter projections before we get at least a couple of weeks into the period in question. The upcoming fall is going to be an exception. I’m still guessing about this, of course, but I’m going to bet my money on a September-November kill that is exceptionally small in relation to USDA’s spring pig crop estimate:
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Here are the excerpts from this week's "Trading Cattle...from a meat market perspective" report, by Kevin Bost.
August 16, 2021
I still hold a moderate long position in August cattle, but the picture to the left tells me that I should roll it into the October contract—which I have to do, of course, very soon. The only reason I have not done so already is because up to this point, I have been exchanging the greater profit potential in the deferred contracts for less risk in the spot contract. But I also have a small bet placed in December cattle with a close-only stop at $130.00.
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Here are the excerpts from this week's "Trading Hogs...from a meat market perspective" report, by Kevin Bost.
August 17, 2021
I have no stake in the hog market at the moment. The picture to the left tells me that I should be approaching from the long side, and I am willing to do so—but only under circumstances so restrictive that I doubt they will ever come to pass. As you may recall rom last week’s discussion, the two primary conditions are: a) the October contract would have to be at least $10 per cwt below my most objective forecast, which today would require something below $80; and b) the obviously major support level at $80.90 would have to be violated, such that the massive long position held by managed money traders would be pared back.
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